Simulation of a Reservoir with Forecast of Some Scenes of Water Demands in a Basin with Few Hydrologic Data

Ivanilto Andreolli

Abstract


The variability of the outflows in the rivers as has resulted visible the occurrence of water excesses in the humid periods and the lack in the dry periods. The causes of this occurrence if give for varieties of difficult forecast and the comment of the historical series such as the outflow, the precipitation and the evaporation are necessary to secularly evaluate the demands and the availability of water that they can be stored by the reservoirs. The reservoirs are alternative to store the water excesses to make use of these volumes in the dry periods and to distribute the water secularly, filtering the stochasticity of the climatic phenomena. This study it presents some analyses, of carried through hydric demands in a reservoir constructed in 1950 in a small hydrographical basin, of 301km2 approximately situated in the basin of the River Candiota, in Candiota in the Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. The reservoir was constructed to take care of a thermoelectrial one, but recently new projects are being studied and that, if implemented, they will imply in one strong hydric demand of this reservoir. This paper describes: some evaluated scenes of water demand, the attainment of synthetic series of monthly outflows, the adjustment of hydrological functions in the basin that possess few data and the evaluation of the risk of imperfection in the attendance of the water demands. The study sample that the hydric availability of the existing reservoir is insufficient to take care of some evaluated scenes, with significant probability fails in the attendance. Moreover, it was verified that the amount that the reservoir if considers to regularize, according to studies of the time of construction, if showed consistent with the carried through numerical analyses.

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